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GLOBAL MUSLIM POPULATION
Muslims at Istiqlal Mosque in Indonesia during Eid ul Fitr
There are about 2 billion Muslims around the world, or 23 percent of the global population. According to a Pew report issued in October 2009 the global Muslim population had reached 1.57 billion while Christianity, had approximately 2.1 billion to 2.2 billion followers (about one third of humanity). Primarily because of high birth rates in Muslim countries, Islam is the world fast growing religion in terms of total numbers. The overwhelming majority of Muslims (87-90 percent) are Sunnis, about 10-13 percent are Shia (Shiite) Muslims,” the study said. [Source: Wikipedia, Tom Heneghan, Reuters, December 18, 2012 |*|]
A study released by Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life in 2011 said Muslims will number 2.2 billion by 2030 compared to 1.6 billion in 2010, making up 26.4 percent of the world population. Pew Research has estimated the number of Muslims will be 2.8 billion in 2050 or 30 percent of world population. |*|
In recent decades, Islam has overtaken Roman Catholicism as the biggest single religious denomination in the world, according to the Vatican. Monsignor Vittorio Formenti, who compiled the Vatican’s 2008 yearbook of statistics, said Muslims made up 19.2 percent of the world’s population and Catholics 17.4 percent. “For the first time in history we are no longer at the top: the Muslims have overtaken us,” Formenti told Vatican newspaper L‘Osservatore Romano. He said that if all Christian groups were considered, including Orthodox churches, Anglicans and Protestants, then Christians made up 33 percent of the world’s population — or about 2 billion people. The report used data from 2006. [Source: Reuters, March 30, 2008]
There is a shortage of good population data and statistics in some Muslim countries because the governments in these countries aren’t very forthcoming with information they have and they aren’t very accommodating to local people or outsiders snooping around asking questions and gathering information. The Pew Report mentioned above came up with numbers by carefully analyzing census reports, demographic studies and general population studies in 232 countries and territories. Among the things Pew found out were that there are more Muslims in Germany than Lebanon and Ethiopia has more Muslims than Afghanistan and Russia has more Muslims than Jordan and Libya combined.
Websites and Resources: Islam Islam.com islam.com ; Islamic City islamicity.com ; Islam 101 islam101.net ; Wikipedia article Wikipedia ; Religious Tolerance religioustolerance.org/islam ; BBC article bbc.co.uk/religion/religions/islam ; Patheos Library – Islam patheos.com/Library/Islam ; University of Southern California Compendium of Muslim Texts web.archive.org ; Encyclopædia Britannica article on Islam britannica.com ; Islam at Project Gutenberg gutenberg.org ; Islam from UCB Libraries GovPubs web.archive.org ; Muslims: PBS Frontline documentary pbs.org frontline ; Discover Islam dislam.org
See Separate Article: MUSLIMS: IDENTITY, DIVERSITY AND VIEWS africame.factsanddetails.com
Most of World’s Muslim Are Not Arabs
Muslim areas in India
Only about 18 to 20 percent of the world’s Muslims are Arabs (who live primarily in the Middle East and North Africa). The largest populations of Muslims are in Indonesia, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nigeria —all non-Arab countries. There are also large numbers in the Philippines, China, Malaysia and Central Asia — again all non-Arab countries. Arab countries in the Middle East and North Africa occupy a lot of land but their population densities are relatively low as large chunks of their territory are occupied by desert.
A study released in 2011 by the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life entitled “The Future of the Global Muslim Population,” about 60 percent of the world’s Muslims will live in the Asia-Pacific region in 2030, 20 percent in the Middle East, 17.6 percent in sub-Saharan Africa, 2.7 percent in Europe and 0.5 percent in the Americas. Pakistan will overtake Indonesia as the world’s most numerous Muslim nation by 2030, it said, while the Muslim minority in mostly Hindu India will retain its global rank as the third largest Muslim population. [Source: Tom Heneghan, Reuters, January 27, 2011]
According to Pew Research Center, Although many countries in the Middle East-North Africa region, where the religion originated in the seventh century, are heavily Muslim, the region is home to only about 20 percent of the world’s Muslims. A majority of the Muslims globally (62 percent) live in the Asia-Pacific region, including large populations in Indonesia, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Iran and Turkey. Indonesia is currently the country with the world’s largest Muslim population.[Source: Michael Lipka, Pew Research Center, August 9, 2017]
Where Muslims Live
About 40 percent of Muslims are from South and Southeast Asia. About 30 percent live in the Middle East (including Turkey and Iran), about 25 percent live in Africa (including Egypt and North Africa). About 4 percent are in Europe and the former Soviet Union, and 1 percent are in North and South America. The Muslim world has geopolitcal importance because much of the world's oil reserves lie under land in Muslim countries. In addition the mostly Muslim Middle East lies were Asia, Africa and Europe all come together.
Percentage of the total population in a region that consider themselves Muslim,: A) 91 percent in the Middle East-North Africa; B) 89 percent in Central Asia; C) 40 percent in Southeast Asia; D) 31 percent in South Asia: E) 30 percent in Sub-Saharan Africa; F) 25 percent in Asia; G) 1.4 percent in Oceania: H) 6 percent in Europe, and I) 1 percent in the Americas. [Source: Wikipedia]
There are 49 countries that have Muslim majorities according to Wikipedia. Muslims are found mainly in a belt that extends from Morocco in North Africa to the Philippines and Indonesia in Southeast Asia but they can also be found elsewhere in Africa and Asia and in Europe and the Americas too. Only around 20 percent of the world's Muslims are Arab, with the majority of Muslims live in Asian and African countries. The largest Muslim populations are found in Indonesia, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, and Nigeria. Islam has a significant presence in the West. It is the second largest religion in Europe and projected to become the second largest in the United States. [Source: Wikipedia, John L. Esposito “Worldmark Encyclopedia of Religious Practices”, 2000s, Encyclopedia.com]
Pew says there are about 3.45 million Muslims of all ages in the U.S., or about 1.1 percent of the U.S. population. This is based on an analysis of census statistics and data from a 2017 survey of U.S. Muslims, which was conducted in English as well as Arabic, Farsi and Urdu. Based on the same analysis, Pew Research Center also estimates that there are 2.15 million Muslim adults in the country, and that a majority of them (58 percent) are immigrants. Our demographic projections estimate that Muslims will make up 2.1 percent of the U.S. population by the year 2050, surpassing people who identify as Jewish on the basis of religion as the second-largest faith group in the country (not including people who say they have no religion).
World Muslim population in 2009, based on total numbers
Countries with the Largest Number of Muslims
Countries with the Most Muslims
1) Indonesia — 259,187,466
2) Pakistan — 238,985,676
3) India — 194,810,000
4) Bangladesh — 153,700,000
5) Nigeria — 99,100,000
6) Egypt — 95,000,000
7) Iran — 82,900,000
8) Turkey — 82,800,000
9) Algeria — 42,000,000
10) Sudan — 40,400,000
[Source: Wikipedia, 2024]
Countries with the Most Muslims
1) Pakistan — 240,800,000
2) Indonesia — 236,000,000
3) India — 200,000,000
4) Bangladesh — 150,800,000
5) Nigeria — 97,000,000
6) Egypt — 90,000,000
7) Turkey — 84,400,000
8) Iran — 82,500,000
9) China — 50,000,000
10) Algeria — 43,7000,000
[Source: World Population Review, 2021]
Countries with the Highest Percentage of Muslims
1) Morocco — 99.9 percent
2) Afghanistan — 99.7 percent
3) Somalia — 99.7 percent
4) Iran — 99.5 percent
5) Tunisia — 99.5 percent
6) Western Sahara — 99.4 percent
7) Iraq — 99.1 percent
8) Yemen — 99.1 percent
9) Mauritania — 99.1 percent
10) Mayotte — 98.6 percent
[Source: World Population Review, 2021]
Population Growth Among Muslims
Primarily because of high birthrate in Muslim countries, Islam is the world’s fastest growing major religion. In 1900 there were 200 million Muslims. Today there are 1.6 million to 1.7 million. This figure is projected to grow to 2.2 billion by 2030. According to a 2015 Pew study, the number of Muslims worldwide is expected to grow by 73 percent from 2010 to 2050 and Muslims are expected to outnumber Christians by about 2070.
Many Islamic countries are experiencing explosive population increases. The primary reason for this is the cultural emphasis on large families. The growth in the number of Muslims is mostly the product of population growth and migration rather than conversion.
A study released by Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life in 2011 found a close link between education and birth rates in Muslim-majority countries. Women in countries with the least education for girls had about five children while those where girls had the longest schooling averaged 2.3 children. The study said it counted “all groups and individuals who self-identify as Muslims,” including secular or non-observant people, without measuring levels of religiosity. It said measuring the impact of Islam on birth rates was difficult because “cultural, social, economic, political, historical and other factors may play equal or greater roles.” [Source: Tom Heneghan, Reuters, January 27, 2011]
Muslim World populations based on percentage of Muslims within a country
Muslim Birth Rate Falls, Population to Grow More Slowly
A study released by Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life in 2011 said that birth and population growth rates in the Muslim world were slowing, from an average of 2.2 percent a year in 1990-2010 to 1.5 percent a year from 2010 to 2030. Muslims will number 2.2 billion by 2030 compared to 1.6 billion in 2010, making up 26.4 percent of the world population compared to 23.4 percent now, according to estimates by the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life. [Source: Tom Heneghan, Reuters, January 27, 2011 ||||]
“The declining growth rate is due primarily to falling fertility rates in many Muslim-majority countries,” the study said, noting the birth rate is falling as more Muslim women are educated, living standards rise and rural people move to cities. “Globally, the Muslim population is forecast to grow at about twice the rate of the non-Muslim population over the next two decades — an average annual growth rate of 1.5 percent for Muslims, compared with 0.7 percent for non-Muslims,” it said. Continued migration will swell the ranks of Europe’s Muslim minorities by one-third by 2030, to 8 percent of the region’s inhabitants from 6 percent, it said.||||
Tom Heneghan of Reuters wrote: “Muslims in France will rise to 6.9 million, or 10.3 percent of the population, from 4.7 million (7.5 percent), in Britain to 5.6 million (8.2 percent) from 2.9 million and in Germany to 5.5 million (7.1 percent) from 4.1 million (5 percent). The Muslim share of the U.S. population will grow from 0.8 percent in 2010 to 1.7 percent in 2030, “making Muslims roughly as numerous as Jews or Episcopalians are in the United States today,” the study said. By 2030, Muslims will number 2.1 million or 23.2 percent of the population in Israel -- including Jerusalem but not the West Bank and Gaza -- after 1.3 million (17.7 percent) in 2010.||||
“The slowdown in Muslim population growth is most pronounced in the Asia-Pacific region, the Middle East-North Africa and Europe, and less sharp in sub-Saharan Africa,” it said, while migration will accelerate it in the Americas through 2020. While Muslim populations worldwide are still younger on average than others, the study said. Sunni Muslims will continue to make up the overwhelming majority in Islam -- about 87-90 percent, the report estimated -- while Shi‘ite numbers may decline because of relatively low birth rates in Iran, where one-third of all Shi‘ites live. ||||
Muslim Youth Bulge
The Islamic is experiencing a “youth bulge” — a huge number of young people in their teens and twenties caused when infant mortality drops and people live longer while fertility rates remain high. Although this youth bulge peaked around the year 2000 and is now declining, in many Muslim countries more than half the population is under 25. The population explosion in turn has produced lots of disenfranchised, unemployed men, who sometimes turn to crime or are sympathetic to jihadist groups or terrorist organizations.
Pew senior demographer Conrad Hackett told Reuters: “An age breakdown showed Muslims had the lowest median age at 23 years, compared to 28 for the whole world population. The median age highlights the population bulge at the point where half the population is above and half below that number. Muslims are going to grow as a share of the world’s population and an important part of that is this young age structure.” By contrast, Judaism, which has 14 million adherents or 0.2 percent of the world population, has the highest median age at 36, meaning its growth prospects are weakest. Global Christianity’s median age is 30 and Hinduism’s 26. [Source: Tom Heneghan, Reuters, December 18, 2012]
children in Ahvas, Iran participating in Gargee'an during Ramadan
Jon Emont wrote in the Washington Post: “The Muslim world as a whole, of course, is unlikely to swing in just one direction, as every Muslim-majority country faces particular economic and social circumstances that will affect whether it can productively integrate its youths. A handful of Muslim countries, such as Iran and Malaysia, have implemented strong birth-control policies to lower their birthrates to below-replacement levels, lessening the challenges facing young job seekers. [Source: Jon Emont, Washington Post, September 5, 2016 /+/]
“Still, the overall trend is of a global Muslim community that has lowered its birthrate at a much slower pace than the rest of the world, according to Hackett. “That Muslims are growing twice as fast as the world’s population is really striking and remarkable,” he said. In Indonesia, which currently is seeing a youth bulge, concern is growing that the generally poor quality of public education, combined with the effects of a sky-high youth smoking rate, will make it hard for the country to capitalize on the surfeit of young people in the way the president envisaged. “There is a trade-off between quality and quantity,” said Aris Ananta, a professor of demography at the University of Indonesia. “Indonesia still needs to raise productivity and improve education and health.” /+/
“Shadi Hamid, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said Muslim leaders’ pride in their faith’s population surge is not only about economics. “There’s a sense that Islam has a vitality that other religions don’t,” he said. “It could be that this significant increase in population could be a negative thing economically for the Muslim world, but some Muslims might be proud of that fact irrespective of the economic outcome.”“ /+/
Impact the Muslim World’s Youth Bulge
Jon Emont wrote in the Washington Post: “The “youth bulge,” can indeed boost economies by increasing the number of people available to work, experts agree. But it also can lead to social instability if the masses of working-age youths are unable to find productive jobs.“The youth bulge can be both a gift and a curse,” said Ragui Assaad, a professor who specializes in labor economics at the University of Minnesota’s Humphrey School of Public Affairs. “You either generate good jobs or a lot of people fall into unemployment, creating the possibility for unrest and frustration.” [Source: Jon Emont, Washington Post, September 5, 2016 /+/]
“When young people lack economic opportunities and the prospect of being able to support families of their own, experts say, they are especially susceptible to the lure of anti-establishment ideology. In Latin America during the 1970s and 1980s, when countries in the region were experiencing youth bulges, that draw often was Marxism, Assaad noted. But it could take the form of austere varieties of Islam for disgruntled Muslim youths today. /+/
“Egypt, Tunisia and Syria during the Arab Spring — when restive youth-led movements challenged (and in the first two cases, toppled) the ruling order — are taken as recent textbook cases of the link. Assaad suggested there is a connection between the recent drop-off in political violence in Latin America and demographic changes. “Now the last rebel-group movement is declaring peace,” he said, alluding to Colombia’s FARC. “Latin America basically crossed its youth-bulge period some time back, so it does have less of a risk factor” now. /+/
Richard Cincotta, a political demographer at the bipartisan Stimson Center who advises the National Intelligence Council on how demographic trends influence the geopolitical landscape, also acknowledged the appeal of radical, often violent, groups to disaffected youths. “You can’t just generalize to say all these young guys will become terrorists or something,” he said. “But you can say they are available, and vulnerable, and they are in a part of their life where you want to impress your friends when you’re ideologically naive, and you’re searching for an identity that [the groups] are good at providing.” /+/
“Another reason experts are wary of optimism about soaring Muslim population numbers is that advances in technology and automation appear to be removing jobs from economies faster than they are adding them — which only exacerbates the problem of youth employment. “There’s always been a neoclassic assumption [that] economy needs labor, [that] labor and economic growth go together,” Cincotta said. “Now they’re becoming disassembled.” /+/
“The one thing demographers are clear about is that demography is not economic destiny, either way. “As an academic, I will say the president is half-right and half-wrong,” said Assaad. “It is called window of opportunity, not demographic gift. You can make use of it if you can grow fast and develop jobs. But that has not materialized in the Middle East, and for Africa it’s still an open question.”“ /+/
Birth Control in the Muslim World
On the subject of birth control, Ali, the son-in-law of the Prophet said “the fewer the children, the more peace of mind.”
Muslims are generally more tolerant about the use of birth control than Catholics. The governments of some Muslim countries such as Pakistan, Iran, Indonesia and Egypt strongly support family planning. Iran and Malaysia have implemented strong birth-control policies that have lowered their birthrates to below-replacement levels, However, some Islamic leaders are opposed to family planning on the grounds that it is a Western plot to reduce the number of Muslim children being born.
Muslim groups approve of the use of contraceptives by married couples. The prophet himself reportedly used to practice coitus interruptus, which was the one of the few methods of family planning available in the 7th century. Since sterilization is permanent there has been some debate on whether or not it should be permitted.
Some attempts at population control in the Muslim world have focusing on increasing the status of women, improving education for girls and providing women with jobs so they have an alternative to rearing children.
Some governments in Muslim countries have done little to push birth control and family planning because of Islamic traditions. Islamists have spoken out against United Nations population controls on the grounds that they condone extramarital sex, homosexuality, abortion and prostitution.
See Separate Article: BIRTH CONTROL, FAMILY PLANNING AND ABORTION IN THE MUSLIM WORLD africame.factsanddetails.com
Will Muslims Outnumber Christians By 2070
If current Muslim growth rates continue Islam could be the world’s largest by 2070. Candida Moss wrote in the Daily Beast: Between now and 2050 the number of Muslims is projected to rise to 2.8 billion, a 35 percent increase. While India will continue to be predominantly Hindu, it will also be home to the world’s largest Muslim population. And, by 2050, Muslims are slated to make up 10 percent of Europe’s population and be the largest non-Christian religion in the U.S. There is good news for Hindu and Jewish populations, too, which will continue to grow, and the global population of Buddhists should hold steady. [Source: Candida Moss, Daily Beast, April 12, 2015]
We should take the findings with a pinch of salt. As a study, it is grounded in the assumption that people will continue to act in the future as they have in the recent past. In other words, the study assumes that economics, education levels, migration patterns, technological and health-care advances, military conflicts, and politics will not impact fertility and conversion rates in the decades to come. That seems unlikely to be the case.
The findings of the study have right-wing pundits in a tizzy. But it’s not the fear of imperiled souls that seems to have commentators worried. It’s not the idea that Christianity is losing the battle for hearts and minds that is the problem. Rather, it’s the sense that Muslims will outnumber Christians in the future.
Growing populations of Muslim immigrants in Europe and the U.S. have already been labeled causes of terrorism. And if many U.S. pundits claim Christians are a persecuted group while maintaining a majority of 78 percent, it’s difficult to imagine how shrill the militarized language of attack will be when Christians are holding on by a two-thirds-of-the-population thread. The feeling that Christians are already under attack and shortly will be outnumbered in a hypothetical Holy War is what is at issue here.
Image Sources: Wikimedia Commons, Pew Forums
Text Sources: Internet Islamic History Sourcebook: sourcebooks.fordham.edu “World Religions” edited by Geoffrey Parrinder (Facts on File Publications, New York); “ Arab News, Jeddah; “Islam, a Short History” by Karen Armstrong; “A History of the Arab Peoples” by Albert Hourani (Faber and Faber, 1991); “Encyclopedia of the World Cultures” edited by David Levinson (G.K. Hall & Company, New York, 1994). “Encyclopedia of the World’s Religions” edited by R.C. Zaehner (Barnes & Noble Books, 1959); Metropolitan Museum of Art, National Geographic, BBC, New York Times, Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, Smithsonian magazine, The Guardian, BBC, Al Jazeera, Times of London, The New Yorker, Time, Newsweek, Reuters, Associated Press, AFP, Lonely Planet Guides, Library of Congress, Compton’s Encyclopedia and various books and other publications.
Last updated March 2024